Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Economic Reality Lining Up with Predictions

I have been referring to the Weiss analysts for some time now. I know that it is best to not rely upon only one voice/opinion when it comes to market predicitions, even when the predictions are based on solid evidence. There is always the risk of personal bias when interpreting/applying the data and evidence.

However, when more sources begin making similar observations, then perhaps it is time to sit up and take notice. Other sources, notabley MarketWatch and Bloomberg, have run articles with the following headlines: Lack of Jobs, Foreclosures May Keep U.S. Housing Depressed & Why today's declines are just the beginning. For weeks and months, the nature of their articles has been to deny, or at least question, the validity of "double-dip" recession talk. They may be beginning to change their tune. The folks at Weiss Research, meanwhile, have been anticipating these types of market moves for some time. At the same time, they have not ignored the positive market direction since March 2009. They do not believe in sitting on the fence when a visible trend is in place. They just want to keep from being enamored by wishful thinking.

Anyway, to get back on track, economic reality is beginning to settle in. Euphoria based on false hope can last only so long. Running bigger and bigger deficits can last only so long. If the feds still had plenty of resources and leeway in their fiscal and monetary policy bags, I would be writing a different slant. But they don't. They may pretend they do, but they don't. The Fed's interest rates are close enough to zero to call them zero. They can't go any lower to make a difference. Meanwhile, folks who have saved and made reasonable decisions for interest income suffer from these paltry rates. The Fed has no room to keep issuing debt. They will likely keep spending too much, but there is no room to make a difference here. They will keep printing dollars, which also hurts responsible Americans who have planned reasonably for their financial future. But creditors are not going to buy American debt when they know that the interest they receive is going to be essentially worthless when inflation resumes.

I wish we were entering just an economic quagmire. At least we could work in a stalemate environment. But it is not even a quagmire. The Feds are losing the economic war, and they are losing it in a hurry.

Nevertheless, there are those who do believe that there are actions to take to preserve, and even grow, wealth in this environment. The folks at Weiss Research are some who believe that. They still believe in the resolve of the American people. They are not the only ones, but they do have some easily actionable suggestions and resources. Keep giving them a look at Money and Markets.

"Therefore be as shrewd as snakes and as innocent as doves." (Matthew 10:16)

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